Henan Jianye 2-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F meet at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 7 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Wuyuan River Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Guangzhou R&F have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Henan Jianye's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Guangzhou R&F's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Henan Jianye 1W, Guangzhou R&F 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2022, ended 3–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Guangzhou R&F — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 40% versus Guangzhou R&F 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 27% | Guangzhou R&F 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.47 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.396 / defence 1.057 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.787 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.128. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Guangzhou R&F bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Henan Jianye games / 22 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 70% | Draw 19% | Guangzhou R&F 11%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Guangzhou R&F 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Guangzhou R&F 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 70% | Draw 19% | Guangzhou R&F 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 57% | xG Henan Jianye 2.47 / Guangzhou R&F 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.396 / def 1.057 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.787 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Guangzhou R&F xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 7 July 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Henan Jianye 2 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 70% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 2 | Guangzhou R&F 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.40) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.79x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.36
11%
8.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.41
0.94
Guangzhou R&F xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
8.80
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
8%
11.86
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
1%
104.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.94 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 12W 11D 7L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 7W 8D 15L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guangzhou R&F.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (8W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.20 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 12W 11D 7L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.07 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2022, when Henan Jianye 2-1 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 64%, Guangzhou R&F 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Henan Jianye and 29% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 43% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 29% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Guangzhou R&F 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Guangzhou R&F 2-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.47 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.94 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.40 / defence 1.06 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.79 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 70% | Draw 19% | Guangzhou R&F 11%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 27%, Guangzhou R&F 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.