Hebei Zhongji 3-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mission Hills Football Base Stadium plays host to Hebei Zhongji versus Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Thursday 11 August 2022 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hebei Zhongji's record over their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Tianjin Teda are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Hebei Zhongji, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Jul 2021, ended Hebei Zhongji 2–1 Tianjin Teda — a Hebei Zhongji win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 39% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 39% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.661 / defence 1.333 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.086 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.097. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.333 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 25 games and Tianjin Teda's last 25.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 21% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 53%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 4.69 | Draw 3.92 | Tianjin Teda 1.88. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 30% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 August 2022 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 21% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.91 / Tianjin Teda 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.661 / def 1.333 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.086 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Tianjin Teda xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Thursday 11 August 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Hebei Zhongji 3 - 4 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 21% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.09x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from Hebei Zhongji's last 25 games and Tianjin Teda's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
21%
4.69
26%
3.92
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.49
1.59
Tianjin Teda xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
4%
22.97
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.59 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 7W 7D 19L from 33 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 16L across 33 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Hebei Zhongji against 1.06 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 5W 3D 8L from their last 16 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across their last 16 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.61 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.97 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Hebei Zhongji (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 19L in their last 33 games (0.85 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 9W 8D 16L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.12 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 7 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji on 7 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2022: Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 38%, Tianjin Teda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Hebei Zhongji and 31% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 31%; Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 50% of games; Tianjin Teda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 44% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 31% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 50% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Hebei Zhongji 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Hebei Zhongji 3-4 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.59 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.66 / defence 1.33 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 21% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 53%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 39%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 0.85 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.