Hebei Zhongji 2-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Hebei Zhongji take on Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Hebei Zhongji welcome Changchun Yatai to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 July 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hebei Zhongji have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 2W 3D 0L from 5 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 5 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Changchun Yatai have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Hebei Zhongji) versus 1.80 (Changchun Yatai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 60% versus Changchun Yatai 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hebei Zhongji 20% | Changchun Yatai 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.947 / defence 1.154 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.851 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 0.994. Data: 5 Hebei Zhongji games / 5 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 28% | Draw 40% | Changchun Yatai 32%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 3.57 | Draw 2.50 | Changchun Yatai 3.12. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 60% | Changchun Yatai 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 28% | Draw 40% | Changchun Yatai 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.91 / Changchun Yatai 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.947 / def 1.154 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.851 / def 1.050 | league avg home 0.913 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Changchun Yatai xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 19 July 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Hebei Zhongji 2 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 28% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 32% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.55
40%
2.50
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
1.88
0.97
Changchun Yatai xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.50
40%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 0.97 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hebei Zhongji on 1.60 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 0.60 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hebei Zhongji have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Changchun Yatai in 20%.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Changchun Yatai in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Early Season
Changchun Yatai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Hebei Zhongji or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Changchun Yatai have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2022, when Changchun Yatai won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2022, when Changchun Yatai 4-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Changchun Yatai tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 60%, Changchun Yatai 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Hebei Zhongji and 20% for Changchun Yatai.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 80%; Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 20% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 20% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hebei Zhongji defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.97 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 28% | Draw 40% | Changchun Yatai 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hebei Zhongji win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 20%, Changchun Yatai 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 1.60 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hebei Zhongji win broke the near-deadlock. Hebei Zhongji scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Changchun Yatai shipped 2 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.