Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 56% versus Wuhan Three Towns 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.095 / defence 0.910 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.270 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Hangzhou Greentown games / 53 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 35%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 4 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.095 / def 0.910 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.270 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 4 August 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 35% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.09x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.37
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.82
1.40
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.40 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 25W 15D 12L from 52 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 9L across 52 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.73 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 15W 4D 6L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 16W 5D 4L across 25 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.23 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 25W 15D 12L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 31W 12D 9L in their last 52 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.96 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 6, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 36%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 64% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Wuhan Three Towns 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.27 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 35%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 54%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.