Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 48%, yet in-form Shanghai Shenhua provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Hangzhou Dragon Stadium in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 7D 1L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shanghai Shenhua — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's (from Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 4 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Hangzhou Greentown 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Shanghai Shenhua 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Shanghai Shenhua 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hangzhou Greentown surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Shanghai Shenhua have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 70% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.83 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.072 / defence 0.907 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.098 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.893 / away 1.342. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 31 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 27%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.08 | Draw 4.02 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.70. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shanghai Shenhua (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Hangzhou Greentown 31 games, Shanghai Shenhua 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Hangzhou Dragon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.83 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.072 / def 0.907 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.098 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.893 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shanghai Shenhua xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 48% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.07) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 31 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.02
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.17
1.34
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.34 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 17D 22L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 43W 12D 5L from 60 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hangzhou Greentown.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 11D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 5D 4L from their last 30 away games — 2.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.33 scored and 0.92 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's scoring rate against Shanghai Shenhua's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 43W 12D 5L in their last 60 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 5 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won Shanghai Shenhua 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 July 2026: Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 80%, Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 53% for Shanghai Shenhua. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 70% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.83 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 27%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Shanghai Shenhua 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.