Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Qingdao Huanghai travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (Relegation Round). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 12 January 2022 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 1 matches, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 1W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Qingdao Huanghai — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Qingdao Huanghai and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2022, ended Hangzhou Greentown 1–0 Qingdao Huanghai — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.695 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 0 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 14.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 32% | Qingdao Huanghai 26%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.40 | Draw 3.14 | Qingdao Huanghai 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 1 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 January 2022 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 32% | Qingdao Huanghai 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 / Qingdao Huanghai 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.695 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Qingdao Huanghai xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Wednesday 12 January 2022 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 42% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.85) and Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Huanghai's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 0 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.14
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Qingdao Huanghai xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.03 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W.
On the other side, Qingdao Huanghai sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Qingdao Huanghai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Qingdao Huanghai in 0%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Early Season
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Qingdao Huanghai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Qingdao Huanghai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Qingdao Huanghai in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2022: Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 0% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 0% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 100% of Qingdao Huanghai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hangzhou Greentown's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round, as Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Qingdao Huanghai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.69 / defence 1.36, drawn from 0/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 32% | Qingdao Huanghai 26%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 0%, Qingdao Huanghai 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Huanghai conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.