Guangzhou R&F 0-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou R&F host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Yuexiushan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.55 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.332 / defence 1.468 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.898 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 0.831 / away 1.237. Guangzhou R&F carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Guangzhou R&F's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Guangzhou R&F games / 4 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 67% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.55 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.332 / def 1.468 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.898 / def 1.400 | league avg home 0.831 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 14 May 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Guangzhou R&F 0 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 33% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guangzhou R&F's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.36
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
3.18
1.63
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.63 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Pre-Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou R&F's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guangzhou R&F
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-4 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Guangzhou R&F's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.55 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.63 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 1.33 / defence 1.47 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.90 / defence 1.40, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.