Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Shanghai Shenhua at Puwan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 June 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Puwan Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Puwan Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Puwan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 2.00 PPG versus Shanghai Shenhua's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.64 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.987 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.021 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.253. Data: 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 14 Shanghai Shenhua games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 28%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.57. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (14 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jun 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.64 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.050 / def 0.987 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.021 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Shanghai Shenhua xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 3 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 45% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.63
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.26
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.26 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent record stands at 13W 5D 4L from 22 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 5L across 22 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have managed 8W 3D 0L from 11 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's scoring rate against Shanghai Shenhua's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 games (2.00 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 36% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 36% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.64 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 14/14 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 28%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%, Shanghai Shenhua 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.