Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Meizhou Kejia make the trip to Dalian Sports Center to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Monday 1 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dalian Aerbin's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Meizhou Kejia away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Dalian Aerbin. A 0.50 PPG lead over Meizhou Kejia (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2022, ended Dalian Aerbin 2–1 Meizhou Kejia — a Dalian Aerbin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 59% versus Meizhou Kejia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 62% | Meizhou Kejia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.33 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.011 / defence 0.872 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.908 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.217. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 37 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 37.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 41% | Draw 36% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.43 | Draw 2.81 | Meizhou Kejia 4.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 80% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 41% | Draw 36% | Meizhou Kejia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.33 / Meizhou Kejia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.011 / def 0.872 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.908 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Meizhou Kejia xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Monday 1 May 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 41% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 1.01x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.91x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 37 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
41%
2.43
36%
2.81
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.29
0.96
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.96 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 13W 9D 12L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 14W 7D 13L from 34 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 1.44 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 17 home games (7W 5D 5L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 4D 8L from their last 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 9D 12L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.53 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 July 2023: Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 71%, Meizhou Kejia 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Dalian Aerbin) and 41% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 35%; Meizhou Kejia in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 24% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 41% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 69% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Meizhou Kejia finished level at 1-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.33 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 41% | Draw 36% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 62%, Meizhou Kejia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.41 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.