Dalian Aerbin 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Henan Jianye to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1W 1D 5L at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium — 0.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.86 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Henan Jianye are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Henan Jianye trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 50% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dalian Aerbin 57% | Henan Jianye 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.04 xG and Henan Jianye 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.829 / defence 1.402 | Henan Jianye attack 0.680 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Dalian Aerbin games / 14 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 33% | Henan Jianye 38%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Henan Jianye 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 43% | Henan Jianye 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 33% | Henan Jianye 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.04 / Henan Jianye 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.829 / def 1.402 | Henan Jianye attack 0.680 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 29% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.83x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
29%
3.46
33%
3.02
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.27
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.23 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 2W 1D 11L from 14 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 4L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Henan Jianye by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.93 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 1D 11L in their last 14 games (0.50 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Henan Jianye away?
Henan Jianye's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 0.57 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 43%, Henan Jianye 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Dalian Aerbin and 14% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 43%; Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 43% of games; Henan Jianye in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 29% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 14% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Dalian Aerbin defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.04 xG and Henan Jianye 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.83 / defence 1.40 against Henan Jianye attack 0.68 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 33% | Henan Jianye 38%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Dalian Aerbin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 57%, Henan Jianye 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Dalian Aerbin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.