Dalian Aerbin 2-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Guangzhou R&F at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 8 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Aerbin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Wuyuan River Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou R&F stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou R&F have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalian Aerbin at 1.30 PPG versus Guangzhou R&F's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Guangzhou R&F in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 46% versus Guangzhou R&F 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 46% | Guangzhou R&F 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.95 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.006 / defence 1.035 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.988 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.089. Guangzhou R&F bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Dalian Aerbin games / 15 Guangzhou R&F games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 57% | Draw 22% | Guangzhou R&F 21%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Guangzhou R&F 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Dalian Aerbin 40% | Guangzhou R&F 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (15 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 57% | Draw 22% | Guangzhou R&F 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.95 / Guangzhou R&F 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.006 / def 1.035 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.988 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Guangzhou R&F xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 8 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 57% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou R&F's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (15/15 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.57
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.06
1.11
Guangzhou R&F xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
32.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.11 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 2D 14L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou R&F sit at 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 3W 1D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou R&F have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.45 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Guangzhou R&F's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.00 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 0-3 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 40%, Guangzhou R&F 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Dalian Aerbin and 20% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F in 40%; Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 40% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 40% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 20% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Guangzhou R&F 2-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.95 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.11 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/15 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 57% | Draw 22% | Guangzhou R&F 21%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 46%, Guangzhou R&F 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou R&F arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Dalian Aerbin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.