Dalian Aerbin 2-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Changchun Yatai to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 July 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dalian Aerbin have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 3W 1D 6L at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Changchun Yatai have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Dalian Aerbin) versus 1.40 (Changchun Yatai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Aerbin, 2 for Changchun Yatai and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Changchun Yatai trading profile (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 45% versus Changchun Yatai 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 45% | Changchun Yatai 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.32 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.858 / defence 1.002 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.967 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.121. Data: 21 Dalian Aerbin games / 21 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 40% | Draw 31% | Changchun Yatai 29%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Changchun Yatai 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 40% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 40% | Draw 31% | Changchun Yatai 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.32 / Changchun Yatai 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.858 / def 1.002 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.967 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Changchun Yatai xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 40% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 2W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.86x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.25
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Changchun Yatai xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.09 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 8W 5D 16L from 29 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 6L across 29 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Changchun Yatai by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 4W 2D 7L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.38 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Early Season
Changchun Yatai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 8W 5D 16L in their last 29 games (1.00 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 13W 10D 6L in their last 29 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.08 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
3
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 38%, Changchun Yatai 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Dalian Aerbin) and 62% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 31%; Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 38% of games; Changchun Yatai in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 54% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 62% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 8, as Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.32 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 40% | Draw 31% | Changchun Yatai 29%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 45%, Changchun Yatai 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.