Dalian Aerbin 2-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dalian Aerbin face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Beijing Guoan at Dalian Sports Center in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 9 June 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dalian Aerbin at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Beijing Guoan have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Beijing Guoan have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalian Aerbin at 1.70 PPG versus Beijing Guoan's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Beijing Guoan 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2022, ended Dalian Aerbin 3–1 Beijing Guoan — a Dalian Aerbin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 54% versus Beijing Guoan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 55% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.24 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.812 / defence 0.917 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.071 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.265. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 45 games and Beijing Guoan's last 45.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 35%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.89 | Draw 3.29 | Beijing Guoan 2.86. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Dalian Aerbin 35% and Beijing Guoan 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 80% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 9 June 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.24 / Beijing Guoan 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.812 / def 0.917 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.071 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 9 June 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 35% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.81) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 45 games and Beijing Guoan's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.29
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.48
1.24
Beijing Guoan xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.24 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 11D 26L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 27 home games (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 4D 11L from their last 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.48 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.33 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2023: Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 59%, Beijing Guoan 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 63% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 52% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 63% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 85% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 12, as Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.24 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.24 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 35%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 55%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.