Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-3 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tongliang Long Stadium plays host to Chongqing Tongliang Long versus Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Chengdu Better City have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Chengdu Better City away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.29 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.756 / defence 1.015 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.126 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.794 / away 1.170. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 32 Chengdu Better City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 35% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 37%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Chengdu Better City 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 35% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.29 / Chengdu Better City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.756 / def 1.015 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.126 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.794 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Chengdu Better City xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3 - 3 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 35% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Chengdu Better City away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack at 0.76x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.13x) against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.68
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.63
1.34
Chengdu Better City xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.34 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since March 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
2
Draws
0
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, Chengdu Better City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Chengdu Better City 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tongliang Long Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Chongqing Tongliang Long and Chengdu Better City drew 3-3 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.29 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.34 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Chongqing Tongliang Long beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 35% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 37%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.