Chongqing Lifan 0-3 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chongqing Lifan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Huadu Stadium plays host to Chongqing Lifan versus Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 7). Kick-off: Wednesday 21 July 2021 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Chongqing Lifan (all games): 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chongqing Lifan's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across their last 3 home games (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.67 — Chongqing Lifan are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 1.83 PPG across their last 6 games: 3W 2D 1L. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings (17%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across their last 3 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shenzhen Ruby FC are 1.16 PPG clear of Chongqing Lifan over their recent games (1.83 vs 0.67). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Chongqing Lifan's last 3 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 3 away games) — Chongqing Lifan have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Chongqing Lifan half-time and goal-timing data (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Lifan 67% and Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chongqing Lifan 67% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.25 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 1.116 / defence 1.326 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.032 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 0.893 / away 1.168. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chongqing Lifan's projected output up. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output up. Data: built from Chongqing Lifan's last 6 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 6.

Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 26% | Draw 32% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 3.78 | Draw 3.17 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.25 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chongqing Lifan's last 3 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 3 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chongqing Lifan 67% (last 3 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% (last 3 away games).

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