Chongqing Lifan 1-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai meet at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chongqing Lifan's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Lifan's home record at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chongqing Lifan are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Huanghai (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 0W 1D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Chongqing Lifan against 0.40 for Qingdao Huanghai. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chongqing Lifan, 1 for Qingdao Huanghai and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Huanghai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Chongqing Lifan half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Qingdao Huanghai half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Lifan 54% versus Qingdao Huanghai 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 64% | Qingdao Huanghai 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 2.00 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 1.201 / defence 1.253 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.626 / defence 1.598. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.252. Qingdao Huanghai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.598 — this is suppressing Chongqing Lifan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Chongqing Lifan games / 11 Qingdao Huanghai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 58% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Huanghai 15%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Huanghai 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Chongqing Lifan (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Lifan at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Chongqing Lifan 40% | Qingdao Huanghai 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 58% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Huanghai 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Chongqing Lifan 2.00 / Qingdao Huanghai 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 1.201 / def 1.253 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.626 / def 1.598 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Lifan (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Qingdao Huanghai xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 5 August 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Chongqing Lifan 1 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 58% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Lifan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Lifan 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Huanghai 1W.
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai in?
Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chongqing Lifan's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Huanghai's defensive record (1.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Qingdao Huanghai's attack (0.63x) against Chongqing Lifan's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Lifan Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.71
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
2.98
0.98
Qingdao Huanghai xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
49.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 0.98 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Chongqing Lifan have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 2W 2D 7L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Huanghai's form line: 2W 1D 8L from 11 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Chongqing Lifan against 0.64 for Qingdao Huanghai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chongqing Lifan have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Chongqing Lifan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Huanghai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chongqing Lifan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chongqing Lifan are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.55 scored and 2.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai in 27%.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Chongqing Lifan have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Lifan at home or Qingdao Huanghai away?
Chongqing Lifan's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Lifan at home: 1.40 PPG; Qingdao Huanghai away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Lifan
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 1-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Chongqing Lifan) and 20% (Qingdao Huanghai) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Chongqing Lifan) and 20% (Qingdao Huanghai).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan have failed to score in 40% of games; Qingdao Huanghai in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Lifan play Qingdao Huanghai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 20% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Chongqing Lifan's recent games and 20% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chongqing Lifan and Qingdao Huanghai tend to score early?
Chongqing Lifan have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Qingdao Huanghai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chongqing Lifan edge out Qingdao Huanghai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Lifan beat Qingdao Huanghai 1-0 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 2.00 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.98 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Lifan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Qingdao Huanghai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 1.20 / defence 1.25 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.63 / defence 1.60, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 58% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Huanghai 15%, with Chongqing Lifan to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Lifan 64%, Qingdao Huanghai 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chongqing Lifan 0.73 PPG, Qingdao Huanghai 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chongqing Lifan win broke the near-deadlock. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.