Chengdu Better City 2-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City host Yunnan Yukun at Chengdu Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chengdu Better City at 1.70 PPG versus Yunnan Yukun's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chengdu Better City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Yunnan Yukun in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Yunnan Yukun and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 5–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chengdu Better City 63% and Yunnan Yukun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 57% | Yunnan Yukun 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.77 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.407 / defence 0.910 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.277 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.152. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — their λ of 2.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Chengdu Better City games / 36 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 16% | Yunnan Yukun 16%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.49 | Draw 6.25 | Yunnan Yukun 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.77 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 67% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.11 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 60% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Chengdu Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 16% | Yunnan Yukun 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 69% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.77 / Yunnan Yukun 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.407 / def 0.910 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.277 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Yunnan Yukun xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:35 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Chengdu Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 67% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 16% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.41x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
67%
1.48
16%
6.12
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
4.11
1.34
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.48
67%
Home win
6.12
16%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
6%
15.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
1%
98.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.34 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 30 games, going 17W 9D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Yunnan Yukun sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 73%.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 17W 9D 4L in their last 30 games (2.00 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.20 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Yunnan Yukun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Yunnan Yukun in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
1
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chengdu Better City at 53%, Yunnan Yukun at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Chengdu Better City) and 60% (Yunnan Yukun).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Chengdu Better City's games and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 60% of Yunnan Yukun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Yunnan Yukun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Yunnan Yukun 2-1 at Chengdu Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.77 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.34 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.41 / defence 0.91 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.28 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 16% | Yunnan Yukun 16%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 57%, Yunnan Yukun 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.