Chengdu Better City 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Chengdu Better City welcome Tianjin Teda to Wuhua Hengpi Football Town. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 July 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 0W 4D 1L at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 0, Tianjin Teda 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 50% versus Tianjin Teda 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chengdu Better City 20% | Tianjin Teda 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.847 / defence 1.217 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.152 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.139. Data: 8 Chengdu Better City games / 22 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 24% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 49%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 2.04. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 80% | Tianjin Teda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jul 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 24% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.05 / Tianjin Teda 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.847 / def 1.217 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.152 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Tianjin Teda xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 09:30 on Friday 8 July 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 24% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 0.85x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
24%
4.23
28%
3.59
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.65
1.60
Tianjin Teda xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
20.89
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.60 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 7D 2L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chengdu Better City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.20 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Tianjin Teda in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 7D 2L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 0.80 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 80%, Tianjin Teda 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Chengdu Better City and 20% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Chengdu Better City's games and 40% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 20% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chengdu Better City defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.60 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.15 / defence 0.91, drawn from 8/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 24% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 49%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Chengdu Better City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 20%, Tianjin Teda 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Chengdu Better City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.