Chengdu Better City 0-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG meet at Jinjiang Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Chengdu Better City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Jinjiang Sports Center: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.80 for SHANGHAI SIPG. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 45% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 42% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.67 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.302 / defence 0.816 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.047 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.433. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Chengdu Better City games / 43 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.57. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.67 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.302 / def 0.816 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.047 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.22
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 48% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.05x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 29/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.02
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.90
1.22
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
5%
19.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.22 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 31 games, going 16W 10D 5L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (17W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.81 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 6W 7D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.55 scored and 0.87 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 16W 10D 5L in their last 31 games (1.87 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 17W 5D 9L in their last 31 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.79 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 29 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Chengdu Better City 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 64%, SHANGHAI SIPG 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chengdu Better City) and 57% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Chengdu Better City's games and 57% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 57% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chengdu Better City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 0-0 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.67 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.22 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.30 / defence 0.82 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 29/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 42%, SHANGHAI SIPG 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.