Chengdu Better City 0-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chengdu Better City face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Chengdu Better City welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Chengdu Better City: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Qingdao Jonoon, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Chengdu Better City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Chengdu Better City and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 54% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.29 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.088 / defence 0.652 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.576 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.358. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Chengdu Better City games / 50 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 77% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Jonoon 6%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.30 | Draw 5.88 | Qingdao Jonoon 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (77%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 77% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Jonoon 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 37% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.29 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.088 / def 0.652 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.576 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Qingdao Jonoon xG
37%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 77% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 6% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (5 meetings): Chengdu Better City 4W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.09) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 3-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
77%
1.30
17%
5.76
6%
17.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
3 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.80
0.51
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.30
77%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
17.51
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
60%
1.67
10%
9.90
Win to Nil
46%
2.16
1%
173.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.9 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.51 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 50 games, going 31W 9D 10L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.86 PPG from 50 outings (11W 10D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 18W 4D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.36 points per game from 25 outings (2W 3D 20L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 0.96 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 31W 9D 10L in their last 50 games (2.04 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 10D 29L in their last 50 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.32 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 48%, Qingdao Jonoon 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Chengdu Better City) and 40% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 32% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chengdu Better City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon finished level at 0-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.29 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.51 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.09 / defence 0.65 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.58 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 77% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Jonoon 6%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Qingdao Jonoon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.