Chengdu Better City 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Chengdu Better City welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.72 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.266 / defence 0.859 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.727 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.171. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Chengdu Better City games / 4 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 58% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.72 | Draw 3.45 | Qingdao Jonoon 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 58% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.72 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.266 / def 0.859 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.727 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Qingdao Jonoon xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 58% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 13% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Chengdu Better City home split: 2.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.27) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
58%
1.72
29%
3.45
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.45
0.73
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
43.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.73 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Qingdao Jonoon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-2 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.72 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.73 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.27 / defence 0.86 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 58% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.