Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng meet at Development Area Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Development Area Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.40 for Shandong Luneng. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shandong Luneng, who have claimed 6 wins from 8 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Shandong Luneng 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Shandong Luneng 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.92 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.019 / defence 0.972 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.272 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.549. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Changchun Yatai games / 34 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 38%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Shandong Luneng 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 50% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.92 / Shandong Luneng 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.019 / def 0.972 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.272 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Shandong Luneng xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 38% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Record (8 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 6W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.02) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.27x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
38%
2.62
24%
4.19
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.83
1.92
Shandong Luneng xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
15%
6.79
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
6%
17.82
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.92 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 12L across 60 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 12W 9D 9L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 9W 13D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.80 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
8
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 63%, Shandong Luneng 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Changchun Yatai) and 43% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 33%; Shandong Luneng in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Changchun Yatai's games and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 43% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.92 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.92 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 38%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.