Changchun Yatai 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to face Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 20 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 6W 3D 1L at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Changchun Yatai, 1.60 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Henan Jianye 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Changchun Yatai 50% | Henan Jianye 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.38 xG and Henan Jianye 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.250 / defence 0.960 | Henan Jianye attack 1.227 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.145. Henan Jianye have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Changchun Yatai games / 18 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Henan Jianye 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 50% | Henan Jianye 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.38 / Henan Jianye 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.250 / def 0.960 | Henan Jianye attack 1.227 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Henan Jianye xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 10:30 on Monday 20 June 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 38% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.25x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.23x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.84
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.73
1.35
Henan Jianye xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.35 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 22 games, going 11W 6D 5L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (1W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.86 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Henan Jianye in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Henan Jianye away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.00 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
4
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 46%, Henan Jianye 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Changchun Yatai and 18% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 36%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 27% of games; Henan Jianye in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 27% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 18% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Changchun Yatai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye finished level at 0-0 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.38 xG and Henan Jianye 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.25 / defence 0.96 against Henan Jianye attack 1.23 / defence 0.85, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 50%, Henan Jianye 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.