Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shandong Luneng make the trip to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Championship Round - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 0L across 9 games at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this term (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 6W 2D 1L from 9 road trips in Super League this season (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.56 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.22 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 53% versus Shandong Luneng 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 53% | Shandong Luneng 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.34 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.095 / defence 1.090 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.056 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Beijing Guoan games / 14 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 32% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 39%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Shandong Luneng 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 67% | Shandong Luneng 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 32% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.34 / Shandong Luneng 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.095 / def 1.090 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.056 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Shandong Luneng xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 29 December 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 32% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.09) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.06x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
32%
3.10
29%
3.43
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.82
1.48
Shandong Luneng xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.48 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 8W 4D 7L from 19 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 15W 3D 1L across 19 games — 2.53 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 6W 3D 0L from 9 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 6W 2D 1L across 9 trips, a 2.22 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.26 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 3D 1L in their last 19 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.33 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 67%, Shandong Luneng 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beijing Guoan) and 56% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 44% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 56% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 6, as Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.34 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.48 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 32% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 39%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 53%, Shandong Luneng 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.