Universidad de Chile 0-0 Palestino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 43%, yet in-form Palestino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Universidad de Chile vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 10 as Universidad de Chile welcome Palestino to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Universidad de Chile stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Universidad de Chile's home record at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Palestino have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Palestino's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Universidad de Chile's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Universidad de Chile register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palestino in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Palestino in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 53% and Palestino 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 44% | Palestino 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.31 xG and Palestino 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.971 / defence 0.922 | Palestino attack 0.986 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.107. Data: 41 Universidad de Chile games / 41 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Palestino 28%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Palestino 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palestino (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Universidad de Chile 60% | Palestino 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Palestino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.31 / Palestino 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.971 / def 0.922 | Palestino attack 0.986 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Palestino xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Palestino kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Palestino kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Universidad de Chile 0 - 0 Palestino.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 43% chance of winning, Palestino a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Palestino in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Palestino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.51
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.31
1.00
Palestino xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.00 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 9D 13L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Palestino sit at 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 1.22 PPG, Palestino on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 5W 5D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Palestino have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.50 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Palestino in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Palestino have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Palestino away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.25 PPG; Palestino away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
2
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 5, Palestino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Universidad de Chile 2-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Universidad de Chile at 56%, Palestino at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Universidad de Chile) and 56% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Palestino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Universidad de Chile's games and 75% of Palestino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 56% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Palestino tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Palestino in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Universidad de Chile's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile and Palestino finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.31 xG and Palestino 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Universidad de Chile fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Palestino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Palestino attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Palestino 28%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 44%, Palestino 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palestino's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.22 PPG, Palestino 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.