Universidad de Chile 0-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palestino at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 27 as Universidad de Chile welcome Palestino to Estadio El Teniente. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 October 2021 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Universidad de Chile stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's home record at Estadio El Teniente: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Palestino have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Universidad de Chile) versus 1.20 (Palestino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Palestino in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 62% and Palestino 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 46% | Palestino 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.40 xG and Palestino 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.863 / defence 1.213 | Palestino attack 0.941 / defence 1.548. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.285. Palestino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.548 — this is suppressing Universidad de Chile's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Universidad de Chile games / 24 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 36% | Draw 26% | Palestino 39%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Palestino 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palestino as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Universidad de Chile 50% | Palestino 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 36% | Draw 26% | Palestino 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.40 / Palestino 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.863 / def 1.213 | Palestino attack 0.941 / def 1.548 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Palestino (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Palestino xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Palestino kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Palestino kicked off at 22:30 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Universidad de Chile 0 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 36% chance of winning, Palestino a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Palestino in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Palestino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.90
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.86
1.47
Palestino xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.47 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 7D 8L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palestino sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 1.42 PPG, Palestino on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Palestino have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.46 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Palestino in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Palestino in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 games (1.42 PPG), while Palestino have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Palestino away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.33 PPG; Palestino away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
2
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 5, Palestino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Universidad de Chile 2-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Universidad de Chile at 58%, Palestino at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Universidad de Chile) and 67% (Palestino).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Palestino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Universidad de Chile's games and 75% of Palestino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 67% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Palestino tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palestino in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Universidad de Chile 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Universidad de Chile 0-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.40 xG and Palestino 1.47 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Palestino attack 0.94 / defence 1.55, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 36% | Draw 26% | Palestino 39%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 46%, Palestino 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palestino's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.42 PPG, Palestino 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.