Universidad de Chile 1-0 Palestino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Universidad de Chile vs Palestino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 24 as Universidad de Chile welcome Palestino to Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Universidad de Chile stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's home record at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Palestino have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Universidad de Chile carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Universidad de Chile, 2 for Palestino and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Palestino in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 57% versus Palestino 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 57% | Palestino 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.49 xG and Palestino 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.984 / defence 0.673 | Palestino attack 0.978 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.190. Universidad de Chile's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Universidad de Chile games / 53 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 54% | Draw 26% | Palestino 20%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Palestino 5.00. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Universidad de Chile 40% | Palestino 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 54% | Draw 26% | Palestino 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.49 / Palestino 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.984 / def 0.673 | Palestino attack 0.978 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Palestino xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Palestino kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Palestino kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 0 Palestino.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 54% chance of winning, Palestino a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
Record (5 meetings): Universidad de Chile 1W | Draws 2 | Palestino 2W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Palestino in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Palestino (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.81
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.28
0.78
Palestino xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.78 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 14D 14L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palestino sit at 1.57 PPG from 53 outings (23W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 1.68 PPG, Palestino on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 10W 10D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Palestino have taken 1.42 points per game from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.51 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Palestino in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 games (1.68 PPG), while Palestino have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Palestino away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.54 PPG; Palestino away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Universidad de Chile or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Palestino in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
2
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 5, Palestino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Universidad de Chile 2-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Palestino?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 50%, Palestino 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Universidad de Chile) and 50% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Palestino in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 54% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 50% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Palestino tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Palestino in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Palestino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Palestino 1-0 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.49 xG and Palestino 0.78 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.98 / defence 0.67 against Palestino attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 54% | Draw 26% | Palestino 20%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, Palestino 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palestino's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.68 PPG, Palestino 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.