Union La Calera 1-3 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union La Calera — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's home record at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union La Calera at 1.40 PPG versus Universidad de Chile's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Union La Calera have won 1, Universidad de Chile 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Union La Calera winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union La Calera 60% and Universidad de Chile 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Universidad de Chile 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 0.82 xG and Universidad de Chile 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.746 / defence 1.068 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.386 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.404. Union La Calera's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Universidad de Chile's defence strength of 0.718 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Universidad de Chile have an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — the away xG of 2.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Union La Calera games / 41 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 14% | Draw 20% | Universidad de Chile 66%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 7.14 | Draw 5.00 | Universidad de Chile 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Universidad de Chile (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Union La Calera 70% | Universidad de Chile 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 14% | Draw 20% | Universidad de Chile 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 49% | xG Union La Calera 0.82 / Universidad de Chile 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.746 / def 1.068 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.386 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Universidad de Chile xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Union La Calera 1 - 3 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 14% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
Record (5 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | Universidad de Chile 3W.
What form are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.75x the league average against Universidad de Chile's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
14%
7.26
20%
5.06
66%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.90
2.08
Universidad de Chile xG
7.26
14%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.50
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
13%
7.98
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
2%
57.91
29%
3.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Union La Calera and 2.08 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Union La Calera have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 23D 18L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Universidad de Chile's form line: 19W 13D 28L from 60 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.33 PPG, Universidad de Chile on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union La Calera have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (11W 12D 7L).
On the road, Universidad de Chile have gone 9W 4D 17L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.25 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Universidad de Chile in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 19W 13D 28L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2025, when Universidad de Chile won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
2
Draws
7
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 1, Universidad de Chile have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Union La Calera 2-2 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union La Calera at 60%, Universidad de Chile at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union La Calera) and 67% (Universidad de Chile). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Universidad de Chile?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union La Calera's games and 70% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union La Calera's matches and 67% of Universidad de Chile's.
Do Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Union La Calera 1-3 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 0.82 xG and Universidad de Chile 2.08 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Universidad de Chile outscored their 2.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.39 / defence 0.72, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 14% | Draw 20% | Universidad de Chile 66%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Universidad de Chile 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.