Union La Calera 1-3 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union La Calera face Deportes Iquique.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Deportes Iquique travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera in Primera División (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Union La Calera have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.061 / defence 1.072 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.091 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.284. Deportes Iquique's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union La Calera's projected output up. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 31 games and Deportes Iquique's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 33%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.26 | Draw 4.37 | Deportes Iquique 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Union La Calera 31 games, Deportes Iquique 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, matchday 3 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Union La Calera 1.77 / Deportes Iquique 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.061 / def 1.072 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.091 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Deportes Iquique xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Union La Calera 1 - 3 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique is a Primera División fixture (matchday 3) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 44% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 1.06x the league average against Deportes Iquique's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 31 games and Deportes Iquique's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.37
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.28
1.50
Deportes Iquique xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.50 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Union La Calera (Home) vs Deportes Iquique (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 7 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union La Calera's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
1
Draws
2
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 1, Deportes Iquique have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2025: Union La Calera 1-2 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Iquique cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Union La Calera 1-3 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.50 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 31/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 44% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 33%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.