U. Catolica 2-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido meet at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 July 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
U. Catolica (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — U. Catolica are significantly better at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for U. Catolica against 0.70 for Coquimbo Unido. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — U. Catolica lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — U. Catolica 53% and Coquimbo Unido 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 60% | Coquimbo Unido 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.94 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.001 / defence 0.851 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.733 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 0.993. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing U. Catolica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 U. Catolica games / 15 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 68% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 10%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Coquimbo Unido 10.00. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 30% | Coquimbo Unido 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 68% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 40% | xG U. Catolica 1.94 / Coquimbo Unido 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.001 / def 0.851 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.733 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.460 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Coquimbo Unido xG
40%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
U. Catolica 2 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 68% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): U. Catolica 1W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.73x) against U. Catolica's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 47/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.67
10%
9.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.56
0.62
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
9.65
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
1%
67.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.62 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 1D 8L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 0.80 PPG from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coquimbo Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.20 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 6W 1D 8L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.86 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when U. Catolica 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 29%, Coquimbo Unido 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (U. Catolica) and 57% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; U. Catolica have failed to score in 29% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 57% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of U. Catolica's recent games and 57% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.94 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.62 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 47/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 68% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 10%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, Coquimbo Unido 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.