U. Catolica 3-3 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 4 as U. Catolica welcome Cobresal to Estadio El Teniente. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
U. Catolica — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, U. Catolica have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — U. Catolica at 1.90 PPG versus Cobresal's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, U. Catolica have won 2, Cobresal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 47% versus Cobresal 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 61% | Cobresal 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.90 xG and Cobresal 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.093 / defence 0.910 | Cobresal attack 1.078 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.151. Data: 33 U. Catolica games / 33 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 55% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 22%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Cobresal 4.55. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 30% | Cobresal 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 55% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG U. Catolica 1.90 / Cobresal 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.093 / def 0.910 | Cobresal attack 1.078 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cobresal xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Cobresal kick off?
U. Catolica vs Cobresal kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
U. Catolica 3 - 3 Cobresal.
Where is U. Catolica vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Cobresal part of?
U. Catolica vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 55% chance of winning, Cobresal a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both U. Catolica and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
Record (3 meetings): U. Catolica 2W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Cobresal in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.46
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.03
1.13
Cobresal xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
3%
29.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.13 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, U. Catolica have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 35W 8D 19L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Cobresal's form line: 24W 13D 25L from 62 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, U. Catolica have posted 2.32 PPG from 31 outings (22W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 8W 6D 17L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.35 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Cobresal in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 35W 8D 19L in their last 62 games (1.82 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 24W 13D 25L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Cobresal away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.32 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.97 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cobresal in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Cobresal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 42%, Cobresal 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (U. Catolica) and 58% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cobresal in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 58% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of U. Catolica's matches and 58% of Cobresal's.
Do U. Catolica and Cobresal tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica and Cobresal share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica and Cobresal finished level at 3-3 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.90 xG and Cobresal 1.13 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Cobresal attack 1.08 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 55% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 22%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 61%, Cobresal 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.