Palestino 1-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palestino and Union La Calera meet at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Primera División, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 November 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Palestino have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Union La Calera have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Union La Calera half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 63% versus Union La Calera 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 56% | Union La Calera 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.44 xG and Union La Calera 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.238 / defence 1.268 | Union La Calera attack 1.016 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.320. Data: 27 Palestino games / 27 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 33% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 44%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Union La Calera 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 50% | Union La Calera 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 33% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Palestino 1.44 / Union La Calera 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.238 / def 1.268 | Union La Calera attack 1.016 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.060 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Union La Calera xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Union La Calera kick off?
Palestino vs Union La Calera kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Palestino 1 - 2 Union La Calera.
Where is Palestino vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Union La Calera part of?
Palestino vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 33% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Palestino and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palestino and Union La Calera in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palestino's attack rating (1.24) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (1.02x) against Palestino's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
33%
3.07
24%
4.21
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Palestino xG
Total xG
3.14
1.70
Union La Calera xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
6%
16.79
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Palestino and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Palestino and 1.70 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palestino's recent record stands at 9W 7D 11L from 27 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 8L across 27 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union La Calera by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palestino heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union La Calera's away record stands at 6W 4D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Palestino are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.26 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 13W 6D 8L in their last 27 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Union La Calera away?
Union La Calera's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.46 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Palestino or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Palestino have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palestino have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Palestino
4
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 4, Union La Calera have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Union La Calera?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palestino see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 54%, Union La Calera 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Palestino) and 54% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Union La Calera in 31%; Union La Calera in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Palestino's recent matches and 54% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Palestino's recent games and 54% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Palestino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Palestino 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.44 xG and Union La Calera 1.70 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.24 / defence 1.27 against Union La Calera attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 33% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 44%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 56%, Union La Calera 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.