Nublense 0-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 1 as Nublense welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nublense have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Coquimbo Unido's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nublense's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Nublense have won 3, Coquimbo Unido 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Nublense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 63% and Coquimbo Unido 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 48% | Coquimbo Unido 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.888 / defence 0.953 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.091 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.371. Data: 30 Nublense games / 30 Coquimbo Unido games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nublense 34% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 40%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Nublense dominate the H2H record, yet Coquimbo Unido are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 50% | Coquimbo Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 34% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nublense 1.30 / Coquimbo Unido 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.888 / def 0.953 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.091 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Coquimbo Unido xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Nublense 0 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 34% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nublense and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (4 meetings): Nublense 3W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in?
Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nublense's attack at 0.89x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.91
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.73
1.43
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Nublense and 1.43 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 18D 19L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (22W 11D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nublense on 1.45 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 13W 8D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nublense have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Nublense's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.57 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nublense's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nublense
3
Draws
3
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Nublense have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nublense at 70%, Coquimbo Unido at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Nublense) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Nublense's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Nublense's matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Nublense and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nublense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Coquimbo Unido finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.43 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 34% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 40%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 48%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.45 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.