Everton de Vina 1-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 9 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton de Vina have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Universidad de Chile (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Everton de Vina, 1.50 for Universidad de Chile — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Universidad de Chile goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 27% versus Universidad de Chile 68%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 18% | Universidad de Chile 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.99 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.770 / defence 0.872 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.076 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.261. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Everton de Vina games / 22 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 32% | Universidad de Chile 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Universidad de Chile 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 20% | Universidad de Chile 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 32% | Universidad de Chile 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Everton de Vina 0.99 / Universidad de Chile 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.770 / def 0.872 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.076 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Universidad de Chile xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 29% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.77) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (1.08x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
29%
3.42
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.18
1.18
Universidad de Chile xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.18 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 8W 7D 7L from 22 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 6L across 22 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.55 for Universidad de Chile. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Universidad de Chile in 68%.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 games (1.41 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Universidad de Chile's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.45 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Universidad de Chile have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 27%, Universidad de Chile 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Everton de Vina) and 64% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 36% of games; Universidad de Chile in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Universidad de Chile?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 73% of Universidad de Chile's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 64% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.99 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.18 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.77 / defence 0.87 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.08 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 32% | Universidad de Chile 39%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 18%, Universidad de Chile 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.41 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.