Everton de Vina 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 1 as Everton de Vina welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 February 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 0.60 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union La Calera have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Everton de Vina.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Union La Calera winning.
It is worth noting that Union La Calera have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Union La Calera 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Union La Calera 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.47 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.858 / defence 1.007 | Union La Calera attack 0.956 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.059. Data: 30 Everton de Vina games / 30 Union La Calera games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.85. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Everton de Vina 1.47 / Union La Calera 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.858 / def 1.007 | Union La Calera attack 0.956 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Union La Calera xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Everton de Vina 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 47% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Record (8 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 2 | Union La Calera 5W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.86) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.81
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.49
1.02
Union La Calera xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.02 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 17D 25L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 17W 12D 31L from 60 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.18 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (9W 12D 9L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.95 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 17W 12D 31L in their last 60 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union La Calera away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.30 PPG; Union La Calera away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, Union La Calera have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 50%, Union La Calera 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Everton de Vina and 23% for Union La Calera.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Union La Calera in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 37% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 23% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 0-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.47 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Union La Calera attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Union La Calera 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Union La Calera 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.