Everton de Vina 1-2 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nublense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Nublense away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.40 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nublense — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus Nublense 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Nublense 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.83 xG and Nublense 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / defence 0.959 | Nublense attack 0.902 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.105. Nublense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Everton de Vina games / 32 Nublense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 58% | Draw 23% | Nublense 19%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Nublense 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 40% | Nublense 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 58% | Draw 23% | Nublense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Everton de Vina 1.83 / Nublense 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / def 0.959 | Nublense attack 0.902 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Nublense xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Nublense kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Nublense.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Nublense part of?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 58% chance of winning, Nublense a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton de Vina and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Record (6 meetings): Everton de Vina 2W | Draws 2 | Nublense 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Nublense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.90x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.41
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.79
0.96
Nublense xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
32.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.96 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 25W 15D 20L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.25 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 12W 8D 10L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 10W 7D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Nublense have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Nublense away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Nublense away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Nublense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Nublense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Nublense 1-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Nublense 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 43% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 57% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 43% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Nublense tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nublense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.83 xG and Nublense 0.96 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Nublense outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Nublense attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 58% | Draw 23% | Nublense 19%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Nublense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Nublense 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Nublense 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.