Everton de Vina 1-0 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deportes Limache at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host Deportes Limache at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estadio Sausalito — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Limache have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Deportes Limache away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Deportes Limache are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Deportes Limache and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Deportes Limache in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 47% versus Deportes Limache 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 47% | Deportes Limache 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.02 xG and Deportes Limache 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.653 / defence 1.232 | Deportes Limache attack 1.152 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.030. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Everton de Vina games / 35 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 26% | Deportes Limache 47%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Limache 2.13. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Limache are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 50% | Deportes Limache 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 26% | Deportes Limache 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Everton de Vina 1.02 / Deportes Limache 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.653 / def 1.232 | Deportes Limache attack 1.152 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Deportes Limache xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Deportes Limache.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache part of?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 26% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache?
Record (2 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 2 | Deportes Limache 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Deportes Limache (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.65) and Deportes Limache's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Limache's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
26%
3.81
26%
3.80
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.48
1.46
Deportes Limache xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.43
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.46 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton de Vina come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 8D 16L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Deportes Limache sit at 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 0.87 PPG, Deportes Limache on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Everton de Vina's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Limache have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (1W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Limache's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.20 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Deportes Limache
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 6W 8D 16L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Deportes Limache away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.07 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Deportes Limache been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Deportes Limache in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Everton de Vina won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Deportes Limache specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
2
Draws
0
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache?
From 4 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Deportes Limache have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Deportes Limache 0-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Everton de Vina at 53%, Deportes Limache at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Everton de Vina) and 73% (Deportes Limache). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 80% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Everton de Vina's matches and 73% of Deportes Limache's.
Do Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Deportes Limache 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.02 xG and Deportes Limache 1.46 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.65 / defence 1.23 against Deportes Limache attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 26% | Deportes Limache 47%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 47%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 0.87 PPG, Deportes Limache 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.