Everton de Vina 2-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 4W 5D 1L at Estadio Sausalito — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.45 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.100 / defence 0.983 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.667 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.210. Data: 44 Everton de Vina games / 14 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 53% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 21%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Deportes Copiapo 4.76. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 53% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Everton de Vina 1.45 / Deportes Copiapo 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.100 / def 0.983 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.667 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Deportes Copiapo xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?
Everton de Vina 2 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 53% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Everton de Vina and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Copiapo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Deportes Copiapo in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Everton de Vina home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 1.10x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.67x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.73
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.24
0.79
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.79 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Everton de Vina have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 3-5 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Deportes Copiapo?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Deportes Copiapo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Deportes Copiapo 2-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.45 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.79 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 53% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 21%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.