Everton de Vina 3-4 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Colo Colo (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton de Vina face Colo Colo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 1 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Colo Colo are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Colo Colo, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Colo Colo winning.
It is worth noting that Colo Colo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 44% versus Colo Colo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 44% | Colo Colo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.06 xG and Colo Colo 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.770 / defence 0.941 | Colo Colo attack 1.196 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.218. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Everton de Vina games / 46 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Colo Colo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 30% | Colo Colo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Everton de Vina 1.06 / Colo Colo 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.770 / def 0.941 | Colo Colo attack 1.196 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Colo Colo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Everton de Vina 3 - 4 Colo Colo.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo part of?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 29% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Everton de Vina and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
Record (9 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 3 | Colo Colo 6W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Colo Colo (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.20x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.70
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.43
1.37
Colo Colo xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.37 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 11W 13D 22L from 46 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo, meanwhile, have gone 25W 8D 13L across 46 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 5W 10D 7L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colo Colo's away record stands at 10W 4D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.70 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 11W 13D 22L in their last 46 games (1.00 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 25W 8D 13L in their last 46 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.14 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
7
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 0, Colo Colo have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-4 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 46%, Colo Colo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Everton de Vina) and 50% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 54% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Everton de Vina 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 3-4 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.06 xG and Colo Colo 1.37 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colo Colo outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.77 / defence 0.94 against Colo Colo attack 1.20 / defence 0.84, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 44%, Colo Colo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.