Deportes Limache 0-3 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 21 as Deportes Limache welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Limache have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Limache at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Deportes Limache are significantly better at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Everton de Vina — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Deportes Limache, 1 for Everton de Vina and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Deportes Limache trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Everton de Vina trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 59% versus Everton de Vina 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 61% | Everton de Vina 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.45 xG and Everton de Vina 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 1.068 / defence 1.148 | Everton de Vina attack 1.174 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.344. Data: 49 Deportes Limache games / 50 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 46%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 2.17. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Deportes Limache 40% | Everton de Vina 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Deportes Limache 1.45 / Everton de Vina 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 1.068 / def 1.148 | Everton de Vina attack 1.174 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Everton de Vina xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Deportes Limache 0 - 3 Everton de Vina.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina part of?
Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 31% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Limache 0W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina in?
Deportes Limache (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deportes Limache's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Deportes Limache's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
31%
3.23
23%
4.39
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
3.26
1.81
Everton de Vina xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
5%
19.76
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.81 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Deportes Limache's recent record stands at 16W 10D 23L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 23L across 49 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Limache on 1.18 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Deportes Limache have managed 12W 2D 9L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Deportes Limache are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 7W 2D 14L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Limache come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Limache are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.10 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Deportes Limache have gone 16W 10D 23L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 13W 13D 23L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Limache at home or Everton de Vina away?
Deportes Limache's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Limache at home: 1.65 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Everton de Vina have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Everton de Vina won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Limache's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Limache
2
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Deportes Limache 0-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Limache 35%, Everton de Vina 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Deportes Limache) and 52% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Deportes Limache keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Limache play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Deportes Limache's recent matches and 39% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Deportes Limache's recent games and 52% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Deportes Limache have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Deportes Limache.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Deportes Limache 0-3 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.45 xG and Everton de Vina 1.81 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Limache fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Everton de Vina attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 46%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 61%, Everton de Vina 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Limache's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 1.18 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.