Deportes Limache 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 1 as Deportes Limache welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.33 xG and Everton de Vina 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 1.159 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.219. Data: 0 Deportes Limache games / 30 Everton de Vina games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 44%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Deportes Limache 1.33 / Everton de Vina 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 1.159 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Everton de Vina xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Deportes Limache 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina part of?
Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 31% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Everton de Vina away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deportes Limache's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Deportes Limache's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
31%
3.18
24%
4.13
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.96
1.62
Everton de Vina xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.62 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Everton de Vina have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Everton de Vina won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Limache's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Limache
2
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Deportes Limache 0-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 1, as Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.33 xG and Everton de Vina 1.62 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Everton de Vina attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 44%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.