Deportes Limache 2-0 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Deportes Iquique travel to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza to take on Deportes Limache. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 April 2025, 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Iquique have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Deportes Iquique's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.53 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.906 / defence 1.421 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.991 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.031. Data: 6 Deportes Limache games / 36 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 38% | Draw 28% | Deportes Iquique 34%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Deportes Iquique 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Limache as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Apr 2025, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 38% | Draw 28% | Deportes Iquique 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Deportes Limache 1.53 / Deportes Iquique 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.906 / def 1.421 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.991 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Deportes Iquique xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 15 April 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique?
Deportes Limache 2 - 0 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 38% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Deportes Limache and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Deportes Iquique?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Limache and Deportes Iquique in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Deportes Iquique away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deportes Limache's attack rating (0.91) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Deportes Limache's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.59
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.98
1.45
Deportes Iquique xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.45 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deportes Limache and Deportes Iquique runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Deportes Limache
0
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Deportes Iquique?
From 2 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 1, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-1 Deportes Limache.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Limache cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Limache beat Deportes Iquique 2-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.53 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.45 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Deportes Iquique landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.91 / defence 1.42 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 38% | Draw 28% | Deportes Iquique 34%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.