Deportes Iquique 1-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique host Union La Calera at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deportes Iquique — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's home record at Estadio Tierra de Campeones: 5W 1D 2L from 8 Primera División appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deportes Iquique at 1.20 PPG versus Union La Calera's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Union La Calera 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Deportes Iquique winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Deportes Iquique trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Union La Calera trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 76% and Union La Calera 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 82% | Union La Calera 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.49 xG and Union La Calera 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.028 / defence 1.142 | Union La Calera attack 0.772 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.330. Data: 17 Deportes Iquique games / 47 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 44% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 30%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Iquique are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 75% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 44% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.49 / Union La Calera 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.028 / def 1.142 | Union La Calera attack 0.772 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Union La Calera xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Deportes Iquique 1 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 44% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Iquique 1W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 0W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Iquique's attack rating (1.03) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.89
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.66
1.17
Union La Calera xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.17 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Deportes Iquique have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 8W 4D 5L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera's form line: 4W 3D 10L from 17 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Deportes Iquique are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union La Calera.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deportes Iquique have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.88 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Union La Calera away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 2.00 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Union La Calera have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2025, when Union La Calera 1-2 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 75%, Union La Calera 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Deportes Iquique) and 38% (Union La Calera). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera in 38%; Union La Calera in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Deportes Iquique's games and 38% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 38% of Union La Calera's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.49 xG and Union La Calera 1.17 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Union La Calera attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 44% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 30%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 82%, Union La Calera 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.