Deportes Iquique 1-3 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Iquique face Palestino.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique host Palestino at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Deportes Iquique stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Deportes Iquique's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palestino have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palestino's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deportes Iquique at 1.60 PPG versus Palestino's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Deportes Iquique's last 10 home games and Palestino's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Palestino 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2024, ended Deportes Iquique 0–2 Palestino — a Palestino win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Deportes Iquique trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Palestino trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Iquique 70% versus Palestino 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Iquique 77% | Palestino 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.23 xG and Palestino 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.963 / defence 1.169 | Palestino attack 1.219 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.122. Palestino have an above-average attack rating of 1.219, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Deportes Iquique's last 33 games and Palestino's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 29% | Draw 25% | Palestino 46%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 3.41 | Draw 4.06 | Palestino 2.17. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Deportes Iquique's last 10 home games and Palestino's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Deportes Iquique 70% (last 10 home games) | Palestino 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Deportes Iquique 33 games, Palestino 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 29% | Draw 25% | Palestino 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Deportes Iquique 1.23 / Palestino 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.963 / def 1.169 | Palestino attack 1.219 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Palestino (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Palestino xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino FAQs
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Palestino kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Deportes Iquique 1 - 3 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Palestino is a Primera División fixture (matchday 4) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 29% chance of winning, Palestino a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Palestino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deportes Iquique vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 0.96x the league average against Palestino's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deportes Iquique's last 33 games and Palestino's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
29%
3.41
25%
4.06
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.83
1.60
Palestino xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.60 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Deportes Iquique have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 13W 7D 10L from 30 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Iquique on 1.60 PPG, Palestino on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deportes Iquique have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 15 home games (10W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Deportes Iquique are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palestino have gone 5W 4D 6L from their last 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.53 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palestino in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
Deportes Iquique (Home) vs Palestino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Iquique
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino Form FAQs
What form are Deportes Iquique and Palestino in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Palestino have gone 13W 7D 10L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Palestino away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 2.13 PPG; Palestino away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Deportes Iquique or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Iquique have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Palestino in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2024. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 8 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Palestino?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Palestino have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Palestino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2025: Palestino 2-0 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 73%, Palestino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Deportes Iquique and 47% for Palestino. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palestino in 33%; Palestino in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deportes Iquique and Palestino matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Deportes Iquique's games and 53% of Palestino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Deportes Iquique and Palestino matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 47% of Palestino's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Palestino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Deportes Iquique's recent matches and 60% of Palestino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Deportes Iquique 1-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.23 xG and Palestino 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Palestino attack 1.22 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 29% | Draw 25% | Palestino 46%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Palestino 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Palestino's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Palestino 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.