Deportes Iquique 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cobresal at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Tierra de Campeones plays host to Deportes Iquique versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 21 November 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Deportes Iquique (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Deportes Iquique have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estadio Tierra de Campeones — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cobresal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cobresal are 0.60 PPG clear of Deportes Iquique in recent Primera División fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deportes Iquique lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Cobresal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Deportes Iquique half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 67% and Cobresal 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 74% | Cobresal 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.24 xG and Cobresal 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.903 / defence 1.269 | Cobresal attack 0.910 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.176. Data: 57 Deportes Iquique games / 57 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 34% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 40%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Cobresal 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Deportes Iquique 60% | Cobresal 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 34% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.24 / Cobresal 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.903 / def 1.269 | Cobresal attack 0.910 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Cobresal xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Deportes Iquique 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 34% chance of winning, Cobresal a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Cobresal?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Iquique 1W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 2W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Cobresal in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.91x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
34%
2.94
26%
3.79
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.60
1.36
Cobresal xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.36 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Deportes Iquique come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 12D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.35 PPG from 57 outings (21W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Deportes Iquique against 1.35 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Deportes Iquique's home form reads 13W 4D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 18W 12D 27L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 21W 14D 22L in their last 57 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Cobresal away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 1.54 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Cobresal?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Cobresal have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 64%, Cobresal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Deportes Iquique and 50% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Deportes Iquique's recent matches and 43% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 50% of Cobresal's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Cobresal tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.24 xG and Cobresal 1.36 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Cobresal attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 34% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 40%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 74%, Cobresal 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.16 PPG, Cobresal 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.