Deportes Copiapo 4-3 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla plays host to Deportes Copiapo versus Union Espanola in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Deportes Copiapo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Deportes Copiapo against 1.50 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Deportes Copiapo 0W, Union Espanola 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 45% versus Union Espanola 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Deportes Copiapo 45% | Union Espanola 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 0.77 xG and Union Espanola 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.742 / defence 1.228 | Union Espanola attack 0.690 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.201. Deportes Copiapo's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Deportes Copiapo games / 51 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 27% | Draw 33% | Union Espanola 40%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Union Espanola 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Deportes Copiapo's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Espanola as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Copiapo 60% | Union Espanola 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 27% | Draw 33% | Union Espanola 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Deportes Copiapo 0.77 / Union Espanola 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.742 / def 1.228 | Union Espanola attack 0.690 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Union Espanola xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Deportes Copiapo 4 - 3 Union Espanola.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 27% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 0W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Copiapo's attack at 0.74x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.69x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 20/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
27%
3.76
33%
3.00
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
1.79
1.02
Union Espanola xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.02 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deportes Copiapo come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 6D 10L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Espanola carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Deportes Copiapo's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Union Espanola in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Union Espanola away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.00 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Deportes Copiapo or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Copiapo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union Espanola go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won 3-0 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Copiapo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Union Espanola have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 2-3 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 60%, Union Espanola 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Deportes Copiapo and 10% for Union Espanola.
On the defensive side: Union Espanola in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Deportes Copiapo's recent matches and 30% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Deportes Copiapo's recent games and 10% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deportes Copiapo defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Union Espanola 4-3 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 0.77 xG and Union Espanola 1.02 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Union Espanola attack 0.69 / defence 0.82, drawn from 20/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 27% | Draw 33% | Union Espanola 40%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Deportes Copiapo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 45%, Union Espanola 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Espanola arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Deportes Copiapo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.