D. La Serena 2-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as D. La Serena face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio La Portada to face D. La Serena in Primera División (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Everton de Vina have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Everton de Vina edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2022, ended D. La Serena 0–4 Everton de Vina — a Everton de Vina win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.41 xG and Everton de Vina 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.813 / defence 1.051 | Everton de Vina attack 0.891 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.071. Data: built from D. La Serena's last 6 games and Everton de Vina's last 36.
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 44% | Draw 32% | Everton de Vina 24%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 2.27 | Draw 3.17 | Everton de Vina 4.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates D. La Serena as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on D. La Serena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 7 | Venue: Estadio La Portada • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 44% | Draw 32% | Everton de Vina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG D. La Serena 1.41 / Everton de Vina 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.813 / def 1.051 | Everton de Vina attack 0.891 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Everton de Vina xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kick off?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estadio La Portada.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
D. La Serena 2 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina part of?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 7) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 44% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both D. La Serena and Everton de Vina will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from D. La Serena's attack rating (0.81) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.89x) against D. La Serena's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from D. La Serena's last 6 games and Everton de Vina's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.17
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
Everton de Vina xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.00 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
D. La Serena (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
D. La Serena
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won Everton de Vina 0-4 D. La Serena on 1 May 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, D. La Serena have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
D. La Serena
0
Draws
5
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, D. La Serena have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Everton de Vina 3-2 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as D. La Serena edge out Everton de Vina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena beat Everton de Vina 2-1 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.41 xG and Everton de Vina 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Everton de Vina attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 44% | Draw 32% | Everton de Vina 24%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.