Curico Unido 1-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Curico Unido take on Antofagasta.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 3 as Curico Unido welcome Antofagasta to Estadio Bicentenario La Granja. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 April 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.23 xG and Antofagasta 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.143 / defence 1.001 | Antofagasta attack 1.227 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 0.838 / away 1.010. Antofagasta bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Curico Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Antofagasta have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Curico Unido games / 2 Antofagasta games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 32% | Draw 35% | Antofagasta 33%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Antofagasta 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Monday 12 Apr 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 32% | Draw 35% | Antofagasta 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Curico Unido 1.23 / Antofagasta 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.143 / def 1.001 | Antofagasta attack 1.227 / def 1.289 | league avg home 0.838 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Antofagasta xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Antofagasta kick off?
Curico Unido vs Antofagasta kicked off at 22:15 on Monday 12 April 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Antofagasta?
Curico Unido 1 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Curico Unido vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Antofagasta part of?
Curico Unido vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 32% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Curico Unido and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Antofagasta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Curico Unido and Antofagasta in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Curico Unido's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.47
1.24
Antofagasta xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.24 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Pre-Season
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Curico Unido's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Curico Unido
3
Draws
0
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 1, Antofagasta have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2022, when Antofagasta 0-0 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Antofagasta?
Curico Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Curico Unido and Antofagasta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Curico Unido and Antofagasta finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.23 xG and Antofagasta 1.24 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Antofagasta attack 1.23 / defence 1.29, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 32% | Draw 35% | Antofagasta 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.