Coquimbo Unido 2-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Union La Calera.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera meet at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 8W 2D 0L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Union La Calera have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Coquimbo Unido. A 2.30 PPG lead over Union La Calera (3.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coquimbo Unido lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 44% versus Union La Calera 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Coquimbo Unido 42% | Union La Calera 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.70 xG and Union La Calera 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.049 / defence 0.796 | Union La Calera attack 0.927 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.125. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Coquimbo Unido games / 55 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 18%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Union La Calera 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.70 / Union La Calera 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.049 / def 0.796 | Union La Calera attack 0.927 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Union La Calera xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 58% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
Record (7 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 4W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (1.05) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.93x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.20
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.53
0.83
Union La Calera xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
30.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.83 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 55 games, going 31W 14D 10L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.15 PPG from 55 outings (17W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 16W 9D 2L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.98 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 31W 14D 10L in their last 55 games (1.95 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 17W 12D 26L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Union La Calera away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.11 PPG; Union La Calera away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Union La Calera have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 48%, Union La Calera 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Coquimbo Unido and 18% for Union La Calera.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Union La Calera in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 33% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 18% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.70 xG and Union La Calera 0.83 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union La Calera landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Union La Calera attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 18%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 42%, Union La Calera 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union La Calera's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.