Coquimbo Unido 2-4 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 14 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Union Espanola to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Espanola stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.36 xG and Union Espanola 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.023 / defence 1.436 | Union Espanola attack 1.110 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 0.974. Data: 13 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 33% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 42%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Union Espanola 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Espanola as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 33% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.36 / Union Espanola 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.023 / def 1.436 | Union Espanola attack 1.110 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.399 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Union Espanola xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 4 Union Espanola.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 33% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Union Espanola away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
33%
3.00
25%
4.01
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.92
1.55
Union Espanola xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.55 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
From 8 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Union Espanola cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Coquimbo Unido 2-4 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.36 xG and Union Espanola 1.55 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Union Espanola outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.02 / defence 1.44 against Union Espanola attack 1.11 / defence 0.95, drawn from 13/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 33% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 42%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.